Key Business Points
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Malawi’s inflation rate fell to a two-year low of 23.8% in March 2026, driven by lower food prices after the harvest season.
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Non-food inflation remains high at 30.7%, partly due to rising fuel costs from the Middle East crisis.
- Reserve Bank of Malawi expects inflation to keep easing if food prices remain stable and agricultural output improves.
The pace at which prices in Malawi have been rising has slowed significantly, with the Consumer Price Index showing an average inflation rate of 24.2% in the first quarter of 2026, compared to 29.9% during the same period last year. In March alone, the rate dropped to 23.8%, the lowest mark since early 2022. This improvement has been led by falling food prices, especially for chimanga (maize), which accounts for 53% of the inflation measure used by the National Statistical Office.
NSO data shows food inflation dipped from 20.8% in February to 20% in March, while prices for other goods continued to climb, with non-food inflation rising to 30.7%. The central bank, Reserve Bank of Malawi, labelled the slowdown "inspiring" and said continued drops in food prices could sustain the trend. RBM Deputy Governor Kisu Simwaka agreed, noting harvest-season supplies would further ease pressure on prices. However, he warned that ongoing conflict in the Middle East is pushing oil prices higher, which could keep non-food inflation elevated.
Economic analyst Edward Leman said the next few months will depend heavily on the size and stability of the harvest. A strong farming season could push annual inflation down further below the 28.4% recorded in 2025, but fuel price shocks and currency stability remain important factors. RBM’s March Monetary Policy Report projects inflation will slow to 24.8% this year, though the bank cautioned that risks to food prices could limit faster declines.
For business owners and investors, the current environment offers both opportunity and caution. Lower food costs may free up household spending power and support stronger retail demand. But high fuel and production costs could keep operational expenses up for manufacturers and transport operators. Businesses involved in agriculture and food trading are likely to see clear benefits from the price drops, while those reliant on imports or fuel will need to manage tighter margins. Monitoring the harvest updates and global energy markets will be critical for making informed financial decisions in the months ahead.
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