Key Business Points:
– Malawi’s exports nearly doubled in February 2026, rising by 98.3% to $64.6 million, marking significant growth in the country’s trade performance
– The trade deficit shrank by 17.8% to $214.5 million, driven by declining imports which fell 5% to $279.1 million
– Tobacco remained the backbone of Malawi’s exports, contributing 60.8% of the top ten export commodities, while fuel and machinery dominated imports
Malawi’s trade performance saw a notable turnaround in February 2026, with official data showing exports nearly doubling to $64.6 million from $32.6 million a year earlier, representing a 98.3% surge. This dramatic increase pushed the export figure much closer to previous years’ levels and sparked optimism about the country’s external sector.
Meanwhile, imports fell by 5% to $279.1 million from $293.7 million in February 2025, leading to a significant narrowing of the trade deficit to $214.5 million. This improvement reflects both stronger export earnings and reduced spending on imported goods.
Despite these gains, Malawi’s exports covered only 23% of import values in February 2026, indicating the economy’s continued reliance on foreign goods. The lopsided trade ratio remains a challenge for policymakers working to achieve greater trade balance.
In month-on-month terms, the divergence between exports and imports became even more pronounced, with exports growing 19.4% from January 2026 levels while imports plummeted by 28.6%. This sharp contraction in imports, coupled with healthy export growth, shrank the trade deficit by an impressive 36.3% on a monthly basis.
Tobacco continues to anchor Malawi’s export basket, contributing 60.8% of the top ten export commodities at $39.3 million. Pulse exports arrived second with $6.3 million, reflecting 9.8% share, while tea made a strong showing at $6.2 million. Other major export contributors included macadamia nuts, groundnuts, natural rubber, and plastics. The top ten export categories combined accounted for 86.7% of total exports, underlining the concentration of Malawi’s export economy.
On the import side, fuel products dominated the bill, with petrol alone costing $35.9 million and representing 12.9% of total imports. Diesel followed closely at $24.5 million, highlighting the country’s significant energy needs. Machinery and vehicles also featured heavily in the import basket, with boilers and machinery accounting for $26.4 million and vehicles adding substantially to import costs.
Local economists provided mixed perspectives on the trade data. While expressing optimism about the export surge, they cautioned that the improvement appeared more opportunistic than structural. Malawi’s export basket remains highly concentrated in primary commodities, particularly tobacco, which leaves the economy vulnerable to global price swings and changing demand patterns.
The heavy import bill for fuel and machinery underscores Malawi’s structural dependencies, which limit the country’s ability to achieve sustainable trade balance improvements. Siyasiya suggested that deliberate policies around import substitution and value addition for raw materials could help build more resilient export earnings over time.
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