Strengthening Malawi’s Economic Foundations: Navigating the Risks of Depleting Forex Reserves Amidst Trade Balance Gains

Key Business Points

• Malawi’s foreign exchange reserves have dropped by $33.5 million, raising concerns about the country’s external sustainability.
• The trade deficit has narrowed, but the persistent deficit and weakening reserve position will exert downward pressure on the value of the Malawi kwacha.
• Business owners and entrepreneurs should be aware of the growing difficulty in accessing foreign exchange through formal channels and consider alternative options.

Malawi’s economy is facing fresh challenges as the country’s foreign exchange reserves dropped by $33.5 million in March 2025, despite a narrowing trade deficit. The Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM) reported that official reserves declined to $536 million, equivalent to 2.1 months of import cover. This decline has raised concerns about the country’s external sustainability, particularly with rising imports and falling exports.

The Impact on Trade and Exports
The trade deficit narrowed to $234.8 million, but the persistent deficit and weakening reserve position will exert downward pressure on the value of the Malawi kwacha. Reduced export earnings could complicate the government’s ability to service its external debt obligations, according to Scotland-based Malawian economist Velli Nyirongo. The decline in export earnings was primarily driven by a collapse in tobacco earnings, which fell to just $3.0 million from $11.3 million in February.

Access to Foreign Exchange
A local businessperson expressed concern over the growing difficulty in accessing foreign exchange through formal banking channels. Many traders are now relying on informal offshore transactions to source goods, which can be risky and unpredictable. Chewa business term "mphato wa nkhani", or informal offshore transactions, is becoming increasingly common as businesses seek alternative ways to access foreign exchange.

Imports and Consumption
On the expenditure side, Malawi spent $264.8 million on imports in March, down from $293.7 million in February. However, this was still higher than the $235.5 million recorded in March 2024, highlighting the economy’s continued reliance on foreign goods. The composition of imports showed a growing tilt towards consumption and non-productive assets, which could exacerbate the country’s external sustainability challenges.

As Malawi’s business community navigates these challenges, it is essential to stay informed about the country’s economic developments and market trends. By understanding the impact of foreign exchange reserves on trade and exports, businesses can make informed decisions about their operations and investments. Kuipenya (to invest) in Malawi’s economy requires a deep understanding of the country’s economic landscape and the opportunities and challenges that arise from it.

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